Each point: games where this book predicted X% chance — how often did that outcome actually happen? Dots on the diagonal = perfectly calibrated. Above = underestimating, below = overestimating.
| Outcome | Brier Score | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 0.4205 | 32 |
| Draw | 0.8596 | 15 |
| Away win | 0.7127 | 18 |
| League | Brier Score | Avg Margin | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 0.5801 | 6.02% | 44 |
| E0 | 0.6502 | 6.01% | 21 |