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gtbets
Brier Score
0.6129
lower = sharper
Avg Margin
5.59%
closing odds
Calibration Curve
Each point: games where this book predicted X% chance — how often did that outcome actually happen?
Dots on the diagonal = perfectly calibrated. Above = underestimating, below = overestimating.
By Outcome Type
| Outcome | Brier Score | Games |
|---|
| Home win | 0.4322 | 102 |
| Draw | 0.8919 | 46 |
| Away win | 0.7062 | 60 |
By League
| League | Brier Score | Avg Margin | Games |
|---|
| USA |
0.5786 |
5.28% |
44 |
| BRA |
0.5803 |
6.1% |
30 |
| NOR |
0.5477 |
6.01% |
26 |
| SWE |
0.651 |
5.95% |
22 |
| I1 |
0.605 |
4.86% |
20 |
| E0 |
0.6772 |
4.81% |
20 |
| F1 |
0.8114 |
5.08% |
10 |
| D1 |
0.7029 |
5.58% |
9 |
| T1 |
0.6509 |
6.03% |
8 |
| P1 |
0.4946 |
6.13% |
7 |
| MEX |
0.6554 |
6.54% |
6 |
| DNK |
0.5606 |
5.96% |
6 |