← Bookmakers
marathonbet
Brier Score
0.5997
lower = sharper
Avg Margin
6.12%
closing odds
Calibration Curve
Each point: games where this book predicted X% chance — how often did that outcome actually happen?
Dots on the diagonal = perfectly calibrated. Above = underestimating, below = overestimating.
By Outcome Type
| Outcome | Brier Score | Games |
|---|
| Home win | 0.4101 | 151 |
| Draw | 0.91 | 71 |
| Away win | 0.6698 | 94 |
By League
| League | Brier Score | Avg Margin | Games |
|---|
| USA |
0.5804 |
7.22% |
44 |
| SP2 |
0.6003 |
7.19% |
33 |
| BRA |
0.5798 |
7.18% |
30 |
| SP1 |
0.5743 |
3.17% |
27 |
| NOR |
0.5438 |
7.2% |
26 |
| E0 |
0.6516 |
3.14% |
21 |
| I1 |
0.6034 |
3.67% |
20 |
| POL |
0.6152 |
7.9% |
20 |
| B1 |
0.6819 |
7.18% |
18 |
| F1 |
0.8258 |
3.17% |
10 |
| D1 |
0.7161 |
3.19% |
9 |
| D2 |
0.5141 |
7.19% |
9 |
| P1 |
0.4962 |
7.21% |
9 |
| T1 |
0.6269 |
7.21% |
9 |
| N1 |
0.546 |
7.21% |
9 |
| DNK |
0.5458 |
7.15% |
6 |
| MEX |
0.6493 |
7.88% |
6 |
| RUS |
0.4589 |
3.39% |
5 |
| ARG |
0.5924 |
7.24% |
5 |