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betfair_ex_eu
Brier Score
0.6028
lower = sharper
Avg Margin
1.06%
closing odds
Calibration Curve
Each point: games where this book predicted X% chance — how often did that outcome actually happen?
Dots on the diagonal = perfectly calibrated. Above = underestimating, below = overestimating.
By Outcome Type
| Outcome | Brier Score | Games |
|---|
| Home win | 0.405 | 168 |
| Draw | 0.8958 | 82 |
| Away win | 0.6914 | 104 |
By League
| League | Brier Score | Avg Margin | Games |
|---|
| USA |
0.5797 |
1.3% |
44 |
| SP2 |
0.5964 |
1.01% |
33 |
| BRA |
0.5794 |
1.05% |
30 |
| SP1 |
0.571 |
0.61% |
27 |
| NOR |
0.5437 |
0.97% |
26 |
| SWE |
0.6736 |
1.0% |
25 |
| E0 |
0.653 |
0.75% |
21 |
| I1 |
0.606 |
0.62% |
20 |
| POL |
0.6195 |
2.11% |
20 |
| B1 |
0.6838 |
1.37% |
18 |
| G1 |
0.5066 |
1.45% |
13 |
| F1 |
0.8263 |
0.58% |
10 |
| P1 |
0.487 |
0.83% |
9 |
| D1 |
0.7156 |
0.5% |
9 |
| D2 |
0.5124 |
1.0% |
9 |
| N1 |
0.538 |
0.84% |
9 |
| T1 |
0.6216 |
1.17% |
9 |
| MEX |
0.65 |
1.34% |
6 |
| AUT |
0.6629 |
1.31% |
6 |
| DNK |
0.5451 |
1.23% |
6 |