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Brier Score
0.6029
lower = sharper
Avg Margin
5.23%
closing odds
Calibration Curve
Each point: games where this book predicted X% chance — how often did that outcome actually happen?
Dots on the diagonal = perfectly calibrated. Above = underestimating, below = overestimating.
By Outcome Type
| Outcome | Brier Score | Games |
|---|
| Home win | 0.4117 | 171 |
| Draw | 0.8872 | 85 |
| Away win | 0.6825 | 107 |
By League
| League | Brier Score | Avg Margin | Games |
|---|
| USA |
0.5766 |
3.54% |
44 |
| SP2 |
0.5999 |
6.72% |
33 |
| BRA |
0.5823 |
5.02% |
30 |
| SP1 |
0.575 |
3.49% |
27 |
| NOR |
0.5451 |
5.88% |
26 |
| SWE |
0.6698 |
5.8% |
25 |
| E0 |
0.6528 |
3.49% |
21 |
| I1 |
0.6057 |
3.5% |
20 |
| POL |
0.6135 |
7.31% |
20 |
| B1 |
0.68 |
6.74% |
18 |
| G1 |
0.515 |
6.81% |
13 |
| F1 |
0.8234 |
3.57% |
10 |
| D1 |
0.6999 |
3.57% |
9 |
| D2 |
0.5198 |
5.9% |
9 |
| P1 |
0.4987 |
6.16% |
9 |
| T1 |
0.6251 |
6.6% |
9 |
| N1 |
0.5456 |
6.79% |
9 |
| RUS |
0.5563 |
6.74% |
8 |
| AUT |
0.6548 |
6.98% |
6 |
| DNK |
0.5423 |
6.63% |
6 |
| MEX |
0.6517 |
3.49% |
6 |
| ARG |
0.5905 |
5.39% |
5 |