← Bookmakers
leovegas_se
Brier Score
0.6037
lower = sharper
Avg Margin
8.05%
closing odds
Calibration Curve
Each point: games where this book predicted X% chance — how often did that outcome actually happen?
Dots on the diagonal = perfectly calibrated. Above = underestimating, below = overestimating.
By Outcome Type
| Outcome | Brier Score | Games |
|---|
| Home win | 0.4092 | 167 |
| Draw | 0.8952 | 81 |
| Away win | 0.6892 | 104 |
By League
| League | Brier Score | Avg Margin | Games |
|---|
| USA |
0.5823 |
4.23% |
44 |
| SP2 |
0.5958 |
9.31% |
33 |
| BRA |
0.5758 |
8.19% |
30 |
| SP1 |
0.57 |
8.84% |
27 |
| NOR |
0.5521 |
7.63% |
26 |
| SWE |
0.6778 |
7.26% |
25 |
| E0 |
0.6541 |
5.5% |
21 |
| I1 |
0.6019 |
8.82% |
20 |
| POL |
0.6235 |
9.96% |
20 |
| B1 |
0.6756 |
11.74% |
18 |
| G1 |
0.4963 |
10.0% |
11 |
| F1 |
0.8223 |
3.17% |
10 |
| D1 |
0.6967 |
8.96% |
9 |
| D2 |
0.5101 |
8.2% |
9 |
| P1 |
0.4925 |
8.86% |
9 |
| N1 |
0.5442 |
11.74% |
9 |
| T1 |
0.6122 |
7.59% |
9 |
| DNK |
0.5726 |
8.88% |
6 |
| MEX |
0.6596 |
10.2% |
6 |
| ARG |
0.6071 |
11.44% |
5 |
| AUT |
0.6119 |
10.07% |
5 |