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Brier Score
0.6074
lower = sharper
Avg Margin
0.91%
closing odds
Calibration Curve
Each point: games where this book predicted X% chance — how often did that outcome actually happen?
Dots on the diagonal = perfectly calibrated. Above = underestimating, below = overestimating.
By Outcome Type
| Outcome | Brier Score | Games |
|---|
| Home win | 0.4096 | 157 |
| Draw | 0.9009 | 76 |
| Away win | 0.6966 | 98 |
By League
| League | Brier Score | Avg Margin | Games |
|---|
| USA |
0.5752 |
1.0% |
40 |
| BRA |
0.5794 |
0.87% |
30 |
| SP2 |
0.5999 |
0.85% |
30 |
| SP1 |
0.5741 |
0.7% |
27 |
| NOR |
0.544 |
0.78% |
26 |
| SWE |
0.6732 |
0.95% |
25 |
| I1 |
0.606 |
0.62% |
20 |
| E0 |
0.6882 |
0.7% |
19 |
| POL |
0.625 |
1.7% |
19 |
| B1 |
0.6849 |
1.3% |
18 |
| F1 |
0.8284 |
0.64% |
10 |
| D1 |
0.714 |
0.56% |
9 |
| D2 |
0.5118 |
0.82% |
9 |
| P1 |
0.4876 |
0.7% |
9 |
| T1 |
0.6253 |
0.94% |
9 |
| N1 |
0.5395 |
0.79% |
9 |
| DNK |
0.544 |
1.08% |
6 |
| MEX |
0.6503 |
1.28% |
6 |
| ARG |
0.5846 |
1.37% |
5 |
| AUT |
0.5005 |
1.04% |
5 |