← Bookmakers
pinnacle
Brier Score
0.6031
lower = sharper
Avg Margin
3.88%
closing odds
Calibration Curve
Each point: games where this book predicted X% chance — how often did that outcome actually happen?
Dots on the diagonal = perfectly calibrated. Above = underestimating, below = overestimating.
By Outcome Type
| Outcome | Brier Score | Games |
|---|
| Home win | 0.4084 | 171 |
| Draw | 0.8913 | 85 |
| Away win | 0.6853 | 107 |
By League
| League | Brier Score | Avg Margin | Games |
|---|
| USA |
0.5817 |
3.84% |
44 |
| SP2 |
0.5987 |
4.0% |
33 |
| BRA |
0.5811 |
3.47% |
30 |
| SP1 |
0.5718 |
2.95% |
27 |
| NOR |
0.5426 |
3.53% |
26 |
| SWE |
0.6697 |
4.41% |
25 |
| E0 |
0.6538 |
3.04% |
21 |
| I1 |
0.6051 |
3.38% |
20 |
| POL |
0.6115 |
4.68% |
20 |
| B1 |
0.6865 |
4.21% |
18 |
| G1 |
0.5128 |
5.19% |
13 |
| F1 |
0.8229 |
3.13% |
10 |
| D1 |
0.7128 |
3.15% |
9 |
| D2 |
0.514 |
4.6% |
9 |
| P1 |
0.4926 |
4.37% |
9 |
| T1 |
0.622 |
4.11% |
9 |
| N1 |
0.5459 |
4.35% |
9 |
| RUS |
0.5526 |
4.09% |
8 |
| AUT |
0.6636 |
5.24% |
6 |
| DNK |
0.5498 |
5.23% |
6 |
| MEX |
0.65 |
3.95% |
6 |
| ARG |
0.5906 |
3.61% |
5 |